Analytical Cost Estimation Model in High Pressure Die Casting

This document provides a detailed summary of the research paper "Analytical cost estimation model in High Pressure Die Casting" published in Procedia Manufacturing in 2017.

1. Overview:

  • Title: Analytical cost estimation model in High Pressure Die Casting
  • Authors: Claudio Favi, Michele Germani, Marco Mandolini
  • Publication Year: 2017
  • Publishing Journal/Academic Society: Procedia Manufacturing, Elsevier B.V.
  • Keywords: cost estimation, High Pressure Die Casting, analytical cost model, knowledge formalization.

2. Research Background:

  • Social/Academic Context of the Research Topic:
    • The paper highlights the importance of product/process-related data and information throughout the product lifecycle within the context of Intelligent Manufacturing.
    • It emphasizes that during the design phase, designers significantly influence product cost, establishing up to 80% of it, including manufacturing costs.
    • Process-related information sharing within an enterprise is presented as a solution to enhance manufacturing flexibility.
    • The availability of big data from production plants is seen as a potential support for designers in making informed decisions regarding feasibility and cost-effectiveness.
  • Limitations of Existing Research:
    • Existing cost estimation methods, particularly for casting processes, are often based on parametric (rule-based) models, primarily using casting weight and shape complexity.
    • While some parametric methods incorporate geometric feature recognition, literature models are deemed sufficiently accurate only for comparative cost analysis at the design phase.
    • Current models lack the detail required for analytically optimizing product geometry and features based on specific process characteristics of each casting process (e.g., gravity, HPDC).
    • Commercial software tools, even those following an analytical approach, operate as "black boxes," failing to provide a detailed cost breakdown based on elementary operations and hindering the identification of process criticalities by product and production engineers.
  • Necessity of the Research:
    • The research identifies the need for a systematic approach to cost estimation specifically for the High Pressure Die Casting (HPDC) process.
    • Such an approach is expected to yield more accurate results and provide better insights into cost breakdowns compared to general methods currently in practice.
    • The paper emphasizes the necessity of coupling a robust cost estimation model with Design-to-Cost (DtC) rules.
    • This coupling is crucial for establishing a holistic framework for cost analysis and optimization, providing a tangible tool for daily design activities in the HPDC sector.

3. Research Purpose and Research Questions:

  • Research Purpose:
    • The primary purpose of this research is to define an analytical model specifically for cost estimation in the High Pressure Die Casting (HPDC) process.
    • The model aims to provide a structured and detailed approach to cost estimation, moving beyond the limitations of existing methods.
  • Key Research Questions:
    • How can an analytical model for HPDC cost estimation be developed based on knowledge formalization and cost estimation algorithms?
    • How can the analytical model (algorithms) be effectively linked to the geometrical features of the product being developed?
    • What is the relationship between the geometrical features of a HPDC component and the various cost items involved in its manufacturing?
    • Can establishing this relationship lead to a more accurate cost breakdown in HPDC, thereby supporting designers in applying Design-to-Cost rules?
  • Research Hypotheses:
    • The central hypothesis is that by establishing a clear relationship between the geometrical features of a product and the associated cost items in the HPDC process, a more accurate and detailed cost breakdown can be achieved.
    • This accurate cost breakdown will empower product designers to effectively apply Design-to-Cost (DtC) rules within the HPDC sector, leading to more cost-effective product designs.
    • The novelty of this approach lies in defining an analytical cost estimation model for HPDC that directly starts from the geometrical features of the product under development.

4. Research Methodology:

  • Research Design:
    • The research employs a design science approach, focusing on the development of an analytical cost model for HPDC.
    • The model is structured around two main pillars: (i) knowledge formalization and (ii) cost estimation algorithms.
    • The novelty lies in linking the analytical model to the geometrical features of the product.
  • Data Collection Method:
    • The analytical cost model was developed by integrating knowledge from multiple sources:
      • Scientific and industrial literature on cost estimation and manufacturing processes.
      • Expert knowledge gathered from skilled technicians in the industry, including cost engineers, production technologists, plant managers, and designers.
    • A spreadsheet was utilized as the implementation tool for the developed cost model.
  • Analysis Method:
    • The core analysis method is the analytical cost model itself, which is based on:
      • Knowledge Formalization: Characterizing and classifying cost items involved in the HPDC process through knowledge collection and formalization from both internal company sources and explicit literature.
      • Cost Estimation Algorithms: Defining algorithms and equations to predict HPDC manufacturing costs. These algorithms establish relationships between HPDC cost items and product attributes (e.g., roughness, maximum thickness).
    • The model calculates the total cost (Ctot) as the sum of raw material cost (Cmat), processing cost (Cpro), accessory operations cost (Caccessory), and setup operations cost (Csetup).
  • Research Subjects and Scope:
    • The research focuses specifically on the High Pressure Die Casting (HPDC) process.
    • The scope includes the cost estimation of HPDC components, considering various factors from raw material to processing and setup.
    • To validate the model, case studies were conducted on three different HPDC components: two gas flame-spreaders (Burner and Burner 3 rings) and a Heater element. These components represent a range of dimensions, features, attributes, and properties within HPDC manufacturing.

5. Main Research Results:

  • Key Research Results:
    • The primary outcome is the development of a structured analytical model for cost estimation in HPDC.
    • The model successfully links geometrical features of the product to specific cost items in the HPDC process.
    • The model provides a detailed cost breakdown, offering insights into the contribution of different cost components.
    • The model's accuracy was tested and validated through case studies on industrial components.
  • Statistical/Qualitative Analysis Results:
    • The validation through case studies demonstrated a maximum error of 6% in estimating the total cost (Ctot) when comparing the model's results to reference values from industry.
    • For the "Burner" case study, a noticeable difference in raw material cost (Cmat) contributed to the 6% error, attributed to potentially over-dimensioned gating systems in the reference model, leading to a higher total casting weight.
    • For the "Burner 3 rings" and "Heater element" case studies, the maximum error in total cost estimation was approximately 4%.
    • The energy cost item (Cene) within the raw material cost was approximated based on current batch data from companies, potentially introducing minor errors in raw material cost estimation.
    • The highest error in cost estimation was observed for accessory and set-up operations (approximately 50% deviation for "Burner 3 rings" and "Heater element"). However, the contribution of these costs to the total cost was low (less than 10%).
  • Data Interpretation:
    • The results indicate that the developed analytical cost model provides a reasonably accurate estimation of the total cost for HPDC components.
    • The model's strength lies in its ability to provide a detailed cost breakdown, enabling designers to understand the cost implications of different design choices related to geometrical features.
    • The relatively higher error in accessory and set-up costs, while present, has a limited impact on the overall cost estimation accuracy due to their smaller contribution to the total cost, especially in high production volumes.
  • Figure Name List:
    • Fig. 1. HPDC process overview. This figure illustrates the sequential steps of the High Pressure Die Casting process, from release agent application to final part operations. The steps are numbered and include:
      1. Release agent applied to the die surface.
      2. Shot sleeve filled with molten metal.
      3. Piston forces molten metal into the die cavity.
      4. Piston maintains pressure on molten metal when die cavity is filled.
      5. Die inserts are separated and the casting is removed (after cooling time).
      6. Individual cast parts are trimmed from the casting.
      7. Final operations performed to the cast parts.
    • Fig. 2. Cost estimation results for the proposed case studies. This table presents the cost estimation results for three case studies (Burner, Burner 3 rings, Heater element), comparing the calculated values from the model with reference values. The table includes:
      • Total cost - Ctot [€]
      • Raw material Cost - Cmat [€]
      • Processing Cost- Cpro [€]
      • Accessory operations Cost - Caccessory [€]
      • Set-up operations cost - Cset-up [€]
      • HPDC process efficiency [%]
      • Total casting weight [kg]
      • Cast product weight [kg]
Fig. 1. HPDC process overview.
Fig. 1. HPDC process overview.
Fig. 2. Cost estimation results for the proposed case studies.
Fig. 2. Cost estimation results for the proposed case studies.

6. Conclusion and Discussion:

  • Summary of Main Results:
    • The paper successfully defined an analytical model for cost estimation of products manufactured using the HPDC process.
    • The model effectively integrates various cost items and establishes a link between product features (geometrical, dimensional) and process parameters (batch size, cooling time).
    • The relationship between geometrical features and cost items provides an accurate cost breakdown, as validated by the case studies.
    • The maximum error observed in total cost estimation using the model was approximately 6%, primarily influenced by the raw material cost item and gating system weight.
    • Lower accuracy was noted for accessory and set-up cost items, although their impact on the total cost is minimal, especially for high production volumes.
  • Academic Significance of the Research:
    • The research demonstrates the effectiveness of adopting analytical models for cost estimation in consolidated manufacturing technologies like HPDC.
    • The developed model provides a valuable tool for manufacturing companies to make informed decisions regarding technology adoption and optimization for specific component geometries and features.
    • This approach contributes to the body of knowledge in cost estimation methodologies for manufacturing processes, particularly in the context of die casting.
  • Practical Implications:
    • The analytical cost estimation model serves as a powerful tool for product designers in the HPDC sector, enabling the application of Design-to-Cost (DtC) principles.
    • By providing a detailed cost breakdown linked to geometrical features, the model allows designers to evaluate the cost implications of design choices early in the design phase.
    • This facilitates the design of more cost-effective HPDC components, optimizing both product performance and manufacturing cost.
  • Limitations of the Research:
    • The model exhibits lower accuracy in estimating accessory and set-up cost items compared to raw material and processing costs.
    • The energy cost item (Cene) within the raw material cost is based on approximations, which could introduce some level of error.
    • Further validation with a broader range of HPDC components and manufacturing scenarios is recommended.

7. Future Follow-up Research:

  • Directions for Follow-up Research:
    • Future research should focus on improving the model's accuracy, particularly for critical cost items such as accessory and set-up operations.
    • Efforts should be made to reduce subjectivity in the cost estimation process, potentially through more refined algorithms and data inputs.
    • Validation of the proposed model should be extended by comparing its performance against other cost models available in scientific literature and commercial software tools.
    • Investigating the integration of more detailed process parameters and material properties into the model could further enhance its accuracy and applicability.
  • Areas Requiring Further Exploration:
    • A key area for future exploration is coupling the developed cost estimation model with the development of a comprehensive Design-to-Cost (DtC) methodology specifically tailored for HPDC.
    • This would involve creating a framework that seamlessly integrates cost estimation into the design process, providing designers with real-time feedback on the cost implications of their design decisions.
    • Further research could also explore the application of the model in optimizing process parameters and tooling design for HPDC, beyond just product geometry optimization.

8. References:

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9. Copyright:

  • This material is Claudio Favi, Michele Germani, Marco Mandolini's paper: Based on Analytical cost estimation model in High Pressure Die Casting.
  • Paper Source: doi:10.1016/j.promfg.2017.07.146

This material was summarized based on the above paper, and unauthorized use for commercial purposes is prohibited.
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Tags: Applications; ,CAD; ,Die casting; ,Efficiency; ,High pressure die casting; ,High pressure die casting (HPDC); ,STEP